Friday, December 16, 2011

Obama may truly be Carter 2.0

As of now there is no crystal ball for the 2012 elections. There are almost no certainties except that Obama will not do better than his 2008 performance. As of now not much has changed from a year ago when I wrote that we are going to have a return to the 2000 electoral map and have another close race.

The only thing that has changed is that I think that there is real chance for a Republican blow-out as happened in 1980. There is so much disapproval of Obama, especially among working-class labor voters (teamsters, laborers, machinists, etc... ) that the loss of this core Democratic block would result in an electoral blow-out.

A generation ago this voting block was called Reagan Democrats. It was nothing like that - it was that construction union members felt estranged from Carter in much the same way their children feel estranged from Obama. The more the Republicans bring up Keystone and Solyndra the more "Reagan Democrats" will be tempted to vote for the Republican candidate. For this to be true the Republican candidate must, in the same way that Reagan did, prove that he is not the evil, brain-dead, dangerous caricature he is made out to be. It may very well be close until the last month before voters move en mass away from Obama.

Monday, December 12, 2011

The Rick Perry Comeback?

I'm not a Rick Perry fan (not being a social conservative) but I must say I've been impressed with his latest debating performances. Perry's road to the Whitehouse would have been fairly smooth if not for his numerous debating blunders. It was a major strategic error for him not to have spent months honing his debating skills before announcing his candidacy. As it is his candidacy is on lifesupport and his only chance is for Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich to bloody themselves while he resurrects his campaign.

Can Rick Perry do that? Yes, but only if he runs a flawless campaign AND his debating performances improve to the point where he can battle Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney head on. He needs to prove that he will not embarrass himself and his supporters come his debates with Obama next fall.

Right now Mitt Romeny is in a terrible position: social conservatives, libertarians, and Tea Party types do not want him as their nominee. Gingrich is suspect (Health Care, Global Warming, "Right-Wing Social Engineering") but, when on message, says all the right things. If Newt and Romney split the early delegates and Perry catches on strong we may very well have a brokered convention. Perry, as a sitting governor; as a candidate coming on strong; as an establishment favorite would have an excellent shot at walking out with the nomination.