As of now there is no crystal ball for the 2012 elections. There are almost no certainties except that Obama will not do better than his 2008 performance. As of now not much has changed from a year ago when I wrote that we are going to have a return to the 2000 electoral map and have another close race.
The only thing that has changed is that I think that there is real chance for a Republican blow-out as happened in 1980. There is so much disapproval of Obama, especially among working-class labor voters (teamsters, laborers, machinists, etc... ) that the loss of this core Democratic block would result in an electoral blow-out.
A generation ago this voting block was called Reagan Democrats. It was nothing like that - it was that construction union members felt estranged from Carter in much the same way their children feel estranged from Obama. The more the Republicans bring up Keystone and Solyndra the more "Reagan Democrats" will be tempted to vote for the Republican candidate. For this to be true the Republican candidate must, in the same way that Reagan did, prove that he is not the evil, brain-dead, dangerous caricature he is made out to be. It may very well be close until the last month before voters move en mass away from Obama.
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