I've been optimistic from the start that the court would rule against the mandate. Although, I must admit, there were times when I wasn't so sure at all. After the oral arguments, and the reactions of Scalia and Roberts, I've been quite optimistic.
I'm hoping for a 7-2 ruling against the mandate but expect it to be 6-3. As far as the rest of the bill I think Scalia's point that it would be “cruel and unusual punishment” to expect the Court to read through 2000+ pages lends itself to a 5-4 decision. I think the no-severablity clause may lead to interesting results. The arrogance of that clause may be enough to enable Roberts to bring both Kennedy and Sotomayor to agree to a very narrow decision against the whole bill. How sweet it would be if we could get a 6-3 on this as well.
Reading back at this post I must add that I know so VERY, VERY little about the workings of the Supreme Court and the statements above sound so much more authorative than they were meant to be. The above are gut feelings based upon very little knowledge and insight.
A few other points. I keep hearing from my liberal/progressive friends that this bill is really very popular. If that is true why not ammend the constitution to clarify what is meant by the regulating interstate commerce? In other words amend the Constitution to give Congress the power to regulate any and all interactions.
EDIT: June 28, 2012 From a comment at the Wall Street Journal:
Once everyone can have anything they want in regard to health care, I know they will be very frugal and only use the service the really need. So your worry about doctors is unfounded. After all history has shown when someone else pays the bills, people will naturally use the services provided in a thoughtful manner. We see this all the time. Take a look at Europe – a perfect example of shared sacrifice. I think the important thing to remember is that when some else is paying for your free lunch, it’s best not to worry about how much the check will be – after all that can only lead to indigestion.It's slightly off topic, but a fantastic parody of the health care law.