One Year Away from Hope and Change

1/20/13. Only one more year until Obama is out!



I hope. I really hope for change.

What did you expect - Higher Taxes Doesn't Solve Problem

Illinois raised personal and corporate taxes in order to solve their budget crisis. They used the time honored argument: if only the rich would pay their fair share everything would be ok. Who knew that it wouldn't work out as advertised?

Judy Topinka, the Illinois State Treasurer, says that this is "extremely disappointing" as a year ago Illinois increased income taxes by 67 percent and also corporate taxes.

“After the largest tax hike in our history, the state continues to be in this precarious fiscal position with persistent payment delays, and frankly, the situation is unlikely to significantly improve in the near term."

And here I thought that budget deficits were due to not enough revenue. I suppose Illinois will have to raise its income and corporate taxes a little more this year - that will solve the problem.

So Disappointed in Perry and Gingrich

I’m now officially opposed to both Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich. Their attacks on Bain Capital were the final straw. As far as Rick Perry goes he can't string ideas together and his Small Government critics were right: he really is a Yellow Dog Democrat. He may get me excited by calling Social Security a Ponzi Scheme but how can I back him if he bashes business as he did by calling Bain Capital "Vulture Capitalism". Perry, what were you thinking?

And Newt - I love a lot of what he says. I love the way he turns the tables in debates and doesn't let himself fall into trap - but then he turns around and backs government-run health care, call the Paul Ryan plan "right-wing social engineering" even though it really is too-little-too-late; and now he bashes businesses like Bain Capital? I can forgive Gingrich for falling for the global warming crap but this I cannot.

I don't expect Gingrich to take punishment without hitting back - he should attach Romney on his ideas, attack him on his policies, attack him on not being able to connect with the American people - but to attack him for Bain Capital? No. With that you lost my support.

EDITED 1/20/2012

Obama may truly be Carter 2.0

As of now there is no crystal ball for the 2012 elections. There are almost no certainties except that Obama will not better his 2008 performance. As of now not much has changed from a year ago when I wrote that we are going to have a return to the 2000 electoral map and have another close race.

The only thing that has changed is that I think that there is real chance for a Republican blow-out as happened in 1980. There is so much disapproval of Obama, especially among working-class labor voters (teamsters, laborers, machinists, etc... ) that the loss of this core Democratic block would result in an electoral blow-out.

A generation ago this voting block was called Reagan Democrats. It was nothing like that - it was that construction union members felt estranged from Carter in much the same way their children feel estranged from Obama. The more the Republicans bring up Keystone and Solyndra the more "Reagan Democrats" will be tempted to vote for the Republican candidate. For this to be true the Republican candidate must, in the same way that Reagan did, prove that he is not the evil, brain-dead, dangerous caricature he is made out to be. It may very well be close until the last month before voters move en mass away from Obama.

The Rick Perry Comeback?

I'm not a Rick Perry fan (not being a social conservative) but I must say I've been impressed with his latest debating performances. Perry's road to the Whitehouse would have been fairly smooth if not for his numerous debating blunders. It was a major strategic error for him not to have spent months honing his debating skills before announcing his candidacy. As it is his candidacy is on lifesupport and his only chance is for Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich to bloody themselves while he resurrects his campaign.

Can Rick Perry do that? Yes, but only if he runs a flawless campaign AND his debating performances improve to the point where he can battle Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney head on. He needs to prove that he will not embarrass himself and his supporters come his debates with Obama next fall.

Right now Mitt Romeny is in a terrible position: social conservatives, libertarians, and Tea Party types do not want him as their nominee. Gingrich is suspect (Health Care, Global Warming, "Right-Wing Social Engineering") but, when on message, says all the right things. If Newt and Romney split the early delegates and Perry catches on strong we may very well have a brokered convention. Perry, as a sitting governor; as a candidate coming on strong; as an establishment favorite would have an excellent shot at walking out with the nomination.

Romney Flip-Flopping

I'm not much of a Romney fan, but I have to say that this Romney campaign flyer from 1994 is quite interesting. Romney may have his flip-flopping issues but it's nothing like Kerry's "I was for it before I was against it" statement.

In this campaign flyer Romney states that he is for lower taxes, against endless government deficits and against federally mandated health care.

You're Going to Need Some Brand New Lines

An excellent video: Obama's Going to Need Some Brand New Lines