It's getting down to the wire and time to start firming up predictions. I find it hard to believe that labor is going to be more energized in this election than they were in 2008. I think it is ridiculous to imagine that the Rock the Vote crowd, and the general Black population is going to be anywhere as enthused this year as they were two years ago.
There was a scary cult-of-personality aspect to the Obama run; that cult has definately run its course and has not matched expectations. When expectations are set in close to Biblical terms all you can do is go down.
While I'm not a Republican, in this election I am rooting for a Tsunami, a clean wipe out of Obama-Pelosi-Reid Democrats. Unfortunately there will not be a rooting out of this Socialist plague from our shores. There are too many socialists in America and at the end of the day there will still be 60-70+ member of the Progressive Caucus still in power.
And yet I have hope that the Democrats have over-reached; that Obama's experience as a community organizer, while effective at getting into the Oval Office, has not proved sufficient in pursuading others to his cause. Further Obama's lack of political experience shows in his inability to gracefully deal with political opponents or even the mildest of criticism.
His political skills, or lack thereof, will determine if he is a one-term president or if, in 2012, he can triangulate by warning people against one-party rule and extol the virtues of a split government.
As far as predictions: I would put the floor at a gain of 55 seats by the Republicans in the House, 8 in the Senate and 8 Governor's Mansions. I have no estimate for State Houses and Senates but would be surprised if the Republicans did not get a clear majority of both.
I think it is most likely that Republicans will get 65+ seats in the House, 9 in the Senate and 10 Governors Mansions.
My hope is much, much more but I think there are too many committed socialists and fellow-travellers for that to happen.