Thursday, October 14, 2010

2010 Election Predictions

It's getting down to the wire and time to start firming up predictions. I find it hard to believe that labor is going to be more energized in this election than they were in 2008. I think it is ridiculous to imagine that the Rock the Vote crowd, and the general Black population is going to be anywhere as enthused this year as they were two years ago.

There was a scary cult-of-personality aspect to the Obama run; that cult has definately run its course and has not matched expectations. When expectations are set in close to Biblical terms all you can do is go down.

While I'm not a Republican, in this election I am rooting for a Tsunami, a clean wipe out of Obama-Pelosi-Reid Democrats. Unfortunately there will not be a rooting out of this Socialist plague from our shores. There are too many socialists in America and at the end of the day there will still be 60-70+ member of the Progressive Caucus still in power.

And yet I have hope that the Democrats have over-reached; that Obama's experience as a community organizer, while effective at getting into the Oval Office, has not proved sufficient in pursuading others to his cause. Further Obama's lack of political experience shows in his inability to gracefully deal with political opponents or even the mildest of criticism.

His political skills, or lack thereof, will determine if he is a one-term president or if, in 2012, he can triangulate by warning people against one-party rule and extol the virtues of a split government.

As far as predictions: I would put the floor at a gain of 55 seats by the Republicans in the House, 8 in the Senate and 8 Governor's Mansions. I have no estimate for State Houses and Senates but would be surprised if the Republicans did not get a clear majority of both.

I think it is most likely that Republicans will get 65+ seats in the House, 9 in the Senate and 10 Governors Mansions.

My hope is much, much more but I think there are too many committed socialists and fellow-travellers for that to happen.


Anonymous said...

I conclude you have a Libertarian slant since you are neither Rep, nor Dem but if (and likely they will) the Republicans win are you expecting they will develop laissez-faire policies?

Government has moved toward more regulation, AKA power, and it will not be easily returned.

The Classical Liberal said...


Excellent comment: "are you expecting they [the Republicans] will develop laissez-faire policies?"

I don't think the Republicans will become Libertarian or have laissez-faire policies but I am hoping against hope that enough people with Libertarian leaning have infiltrated the Republican Party and are being elected that there will truly be a push back against statism.

I hope that the new Republican Party will eliminate ObamaCare, reduce and simplify taxes, reduce spending, get rid of Cap and Trade, or at least fight the good fight. By that I mean forcing Obama to veto legislation; forcing Democrats in the Senate (if they’re in the minority) to fight a rear-guard action preventing the dismantling of these legislations. I expect to hear the phrase “where is it in Constitution” or variation thereof often enough that policy debate, even in the MSM, begins to include the Constitution and provisions laid out there.

I will not expect the Republicans to do more. I don’t expect that they will privatize Social Security or bring federal employee compensation under control. I think that will have to come from the bottom up; and I don’t expect them to close our European military bases.

I do think that this is the last, best chance to curb the spread of European statism in this country. I do think that if the Republicans return to their big statist ways that the party will fracture -and good riddance if they do.

Anonymous said...

65 seats. You're just another right-wing nut job dreaming up nonsense. The Republicans will be lucky to win 30 seats. Keep dreaming of Bush and the glory days of Reagun.

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