Monday, November 29, 2010

2012 - Does Obama have a chance?

The short answer is YES. Absolutely. The country has reverted back to the 2000-2004 electoral map. The 2012 election will probably be very close.


2000 Electoral Map (Bush-Gore)

The 2000 map will exist in 2012 for three reasons. The House and Senate Democrats elected in 2006 and 2008 were largely in response to Republicans thinking they could stay in power by government largess (as the Dems did for 40 years). The Democrats who were elected, for a large part, campaigned as fiscal conservatives, and often times as social conservatives as well. Many of the newly elected Blue Dog Democrats ran far to the right of their Republican opponents. Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid pushed these congressmen to make several very unpopular votes in 2009 and 2010. We saw the result of those votes in the 2010 election. The long-term result of these votes is that whatever patina of "centrist Democrat" that existed in the minds of many Americans has been wiped away. This is particularly true in the South and Mid-West.

Second, it appears likely that the Republicans will win both the House and Senate. There will be some that will want to have a divided government and be less inclined to vote for a Republican President. If, for instance, the Democrats were a lock to hold onto the House and Senate some Progressives might have been willing to let Obama lose. We know that many on the left are angry at Obama for not following his campaign promises: such as closing Gitmo, pulling troops out of both Iraq and Afghanistan, and overturning "Don't Ask Don't Tell"; as well as not holding firm on "single-payer" health care and other issues. However the same people, fearing a Republican President and Republican controlled Congress, will be animated and very likely to show up.

The third reason for the return to the 2000 map is that there isn't a Republican that can rally the base as well as reach out and carry non-progressive Democrats. There are many Democrat voters who are not socialists, who are not progressives, by any stretch of the imagination who are appalled at what's happening but don't associate the ridiculous laws with the democratic party. Many, as an example, may be for zero illegal immigration and lower taxes but would still vote straight-line Democratic. To break the 2000 electoral map wide open there would need to be a Ronald Reagan, but there aren't any available for the 2012 election. It must be stated that most of these Democrats live in Blue States. For those reasons I don't see the 2000 map, shown above, to morph into the 1980 map (Ronald Reagan versus Jimmy Carter) shown below.


1980 Electoral Map (Reagan-Carter)

Obama can win even if he loses Florida. Nevada and Colorado are turning purple-blue and I can see them being more reliably Democrat in the future. Gore won New Mexico by fraud, IMO, and, unless Susana Martinez turns things around for the Republicans, New Mexico will probably joing Nevada and Colorado as Purple-Blue states.


2000 Electoral Map (Bush-Gore)


EDIT: 12/16/2011
See a follow-up post: Obama May Truly be Carter 2.0

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Obama is going to destroy who ever the Repubs send up

Vera said...

What do you think now? Has the last few months led you to think that Obama should win rather easily?

His approval rating is back up - and I agree with you that the split-vote mentality is going to help Obama in 2012.

I, for one, can't see him lose.

The Classical Liberal said...

Vera,

I didn't see your post. I still think it's going to be a very tight race. The Republicans will definitely (as much as anything can be definite in politics) win Florida, Indiana, North Carolina bringing Obama's vote total down to 304. I think that Virginia is almost assuredly going Republican which brings Obama's down to 291. Put Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and New Hampshire in the TBD category and with the Great Lakes states (Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin)not completely in bag I see this to be a very close race.

Anonymous said...

HELL NO!

The Classical Liberal said...

Anonymous,

I hope you're right. Obama must be defeated, however he has a depressing amount of supporters/free-market haters.

Anonymous said...

Obama is a shoo-in. I dont know why you think any of those republiturd midgits have a shot of beating Obama. He inherited huge problems and is doing an excellent job fixing the mess Bush and the other neo-cons made.

The Classical Liberal said...

I wouldn't call Obama a "shoo-in." He may win but it will be a very tight election. Do you really think Obama will do better in 2012 than he did in 2008?

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