Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Aftermath of 2010 Elections

Executive Summary: Outside of Deep Blue areas Republicans did very well.

The Effects of ObamaCare
We were told by the Obama administration that passing the health care bill would help keep the Democratic majority; we were told by Nancy Pelosi that after the initial fear mongering was over and that it was passed that the American people would appreciate the work done in their behalf; we were told by Democratic strategists that the collapse of Democratic fortunes in 1994 was because they didn’t pass HillaryCare.

And come the November elections few Democrats, even those in blue areas were touting their efforts on passing ObamaCare. Furthermore saw Democrat supporters running against the HealthCare law and then dropping by the wayside as the election results came in. A clear example of this was the race between Cravaack and Oberstar, an 18-term incumbent who chairs the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. Cravaack focused on Oberstar's support of the health- care legislation and vowed, that should he be elected, he would work to repeal the new health care law. After winning 18 straight elections Oberstar was defeated.

The Realignment of the South
Since 1994 the South has been very favorable to Republicans on the national stage, but considerably less so on the state level. We haven’t fully digested the changes brought by the 2010 elections but it looks as if the states are turning Republican on the state and local level as well.

The Realignment of the Mid-West
For years Republicans have been trying to make inroads into what they thought was fertile territory -Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan – for years it looked like fools gold. This past mid-term election might have been the election which has changed the electoral map here for good. The Michigan House, the Minnesota House and Senate and the Wisconsin Assembly and Senate all switched from Democrat to Republican control. We won’t know for sure for another two election cycles.

Fools Gold
Neither California nor Pennsylvania will go Republican anytime soon on a state level. Republicans always feel that they can do well in Pennsylvania. They can outside of Philly and Pittsburg but the Political Machine, I mean the fraud, is too high for time, energy and money to be placed in either state.

Obama Himself
One of Obama’s most persuasive arguments in the 2008 elections and one that inspired much of the electorate was his desire to change the way Washington works, to end the red-state/blue-state rancor: as Obama put it “there is no red state - blue state” Does anyone believe Obama anymore? In 2012 he will get the Progressives and SEIU types out en masse. Who else? The black population, yes. Latinos? Probably not as much as 2008.

Red v Blue state economies: the experiments
Michigan is one thing, but California is another. The trashing of the Californian economy can be laid directly upon the rise of Euro-Socialism. If a declining California becomes the poster boy for progressive economic policies, and a rising Texas becomes the poster boy for free markets the Democrats will be hurt badly in the 2012 elections. It’s not that a progressive state, like Michigan, is doing badly and that a semi-free market state, like Florida, is doing well: it’s all the extra symbolism that’s attached to each state. If we clearly see a rise in the economic well-being in several red states, along with Texas, and “malaise” elsewhere the political transformation of the south and the mid-west will be complete.

What does the electoral map look like in 2012?
It’s way too early for specifics. Indiana and North Carolina are definitely Red again. New Hampshire and Florida are likely Red; and Virginia and Ohio are lean red. Those changes alone would give Obama a very narrow victory. Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada are toss-ups and right now, along with the Mid-West Lake Region states could determine the election.


Anonymous said...

Realignment, my ass. You can keep the slave south. The midwest is progressive.

The Classical Liberal said...

The midwest is not as progressive as you think it is. And, while the south was very bigoted times have changed. Not have the new generations been less bigoted than the earlier ones but there have been lots of immigrants to the south. Many of these immigrants have come from other countries and many have come looking for work from Northern states.

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