Monday, March 8, 2010

Logic, Facts and Faith

There is too much nonsense out there, but one thing I'm very happy about is that religious people use facts and logic in presenting their points. I know most evolutionists and creationists would disagree but this is common ground between the two sides. It is difficult, if not impossible, for a non-believer to have a discussion with a believer if the entire conversation is focused on revealed truths.

So, when we come across statements such as what's quoted below we have the opportunity to dispute or debate facts and logical reasoning.
It has been said that it is virtually impossible for anyone to make 11 straight predictions, 2000 years into the future. There is only one chance in 8 x 10 to the 63rd power, or 80 with 63 zeros after it that such a thing could be done. If such a set of predictions existed, it would have to be the Word of God.

What's wrong with the above? Simple, how could someone, anyone, be able to make the odds on generic predictions; more than that what formula could be used to say that the odds of making "11 straight predictions, 2000 years into the future" are 8x10^80?

For example:

I predict that in the year 4010 there will be earthquakes.
I predict that in the year 4010 there will be volcanic activity.
I predict that in the year 4010 there will be hurricanes.

What are the odds that those three predictions come true?

How about the odds on this prediction: A 42 year old man; a paternal descendant of George Washington will be elected president of the United States.

How do we calculate the odds of that prediction coming true? Do you want to try to calculate the odds that the United States still exists in 2000 years?


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